Numbers are fishy  (letter to the editor)

Miles G. McPhee Yakima Herald  November 4, 2012

To the editor — I read with interest David Lester’s Oct. 30 article on the favorable benefit-cost ratio for the Yakima Basin Integrated Water Enhancement Project, which comes about by placing a value of $7.4 billion on the prospective increase of salmon in the basin. The story ends with the quote from Ed Henderson: “Their numbers are fishy.” Offhand that seemed likely, but I didn’t know. So, I looked up some other numbers on the Internet: The average lifespan of a sockeye salmon is 4-5 years, and its average weight is about 7.5 pounds. The estimate for the new fish population varies from 182,000 to 472,000 fish, mostly sockeye. With an average age of 4.5 years, that means a replacement rate of about 40,000 to 105,000 fish per year. Assuming a steady state, these numbers multiplied by a century yield 4 million to 10.5 million additional fish.

Dividing the suggested benefit ($7.4 billion) by these numbers of fish yields a value of about $1,850 to $700 per fish, respectively. Dividing by the average sockeye weight gives a range of values from $247 to $93 per pound. Fishy indeed! “Smoke and mirrors” might also be an apt description.